Climate Driver Update 28th March 2025

To find out what the acronyms mean, check out my glossary.

The ENSO remains neutral. Having dropped slightly but still well within neutral areas. Current outlooks have it remaining neutral until at least September, a couple show La Nina, and a couple show El Nino..but the majority of global models keeps the ENSO in the neutral areas. However that being said, outlooks made at this time of year generally have lower accuracy then others times of the year but worth watching none the less.

 

The SOI is up and down but generally remains neutral.

IOD is neutral and likely to remain neutral over the next few months. There is a chance the index could go negative for a time in Winter however the latest outlooks favour neutral. Like the ENSO, outlooks at this time of year have generally lower accuracy then others times of the year. And once again is worth watching regardless.

The MJO is currently over the Western pacific and weak. However it will continue causing wetter conditions across the north for a week or so.

SAM has been positive for the last few weeks, however in autumn SAM has little influence on the Australian Climate (Unlike Spring when it has a weak summer effect). SAM is likely to remain near neutral or weak positive over the next fortnight. Beyond 2 weeks SAM outlooks are generally inaccurate.