Climate Driver Update valid as of 25/02/2025 ENSO and SOI The ENSO value has increased further this week although remaining in the neutral area. The value as of 23/02/25 is -0.4°C as shown in fig 1a. It’s pretty much a certainty that Australia will not witness an La Nina event this season. Outlooks […]
Tropical Cyclone Alfred update #4 I swear everyday this Cyclone gets more and more annoying but at the same time good fun. From a forecasting perspective it is both. It’s fun to see how unpredictable it is but annoying for the exact same reason. Anyway time to get in to it. Here’s the current Cyclone […]
Climate Driver Update 19/02/25 ENSO and SOI The ENSO remains Neutral as it has since April last year, the value has dipped in to La Nina thresholds 3 times but it has not remained there for longer then 2 weeks. As Fig 1a shows the current value is -0.54 below the average SST […]
IDQ20900 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments. Flood Watch for parts of the Western Cape York Peninsula Issued at 12:09 pm EST on Sunday 16 February 2025 Flood Watch Number: 23 FURTHER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAPE YORK PENINSULA […]
7 day rainfall update NT:- The western top end should see a continuation of storm activity. With falls of 80mm possible in places. In the eastern top end, totals will be a little less at around 60mm. The rest of the NT outside the Top End should remain mostly dry and sunny. QLD:- The Cape […]
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia 18U Issued at 1:12 pm AWST Friday 14 February 2025. Refer to latest Tropical Cyclone Advice. The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range […]
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia 18U Issued at 11:49 am AWST Friday 14 February 2025. Refer to latest Tropical Cyclone Advice. The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range […]
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau’s best estimate of the cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre. Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost […]
Tropical low 18U Update #3 Over night TL 18U finally intensified a little. Sustained winds near the centre are 45kph. So a slight change. Let’s have a look at the modelling. Some I’ve included in images below, some I’ve looked at and will share what they say here. Track: Overall Track outlooks are generally the […]
Tropical Low 18U update. Well not much has changed since yesterday with the actual low. Sustained winds near the centre are still 35kph. It’s really struggling to get its self together. Most models have the low either remaining as a low or remaining at a low end intensity. Details: Track: Currently it’s expected to make […]