Tropical Cyclone Alfred update #4

I swear everyday this Cyclone gets more and more annoying but at the same time good fun. From a forecasting perspective it is both. It’s fun to see how unpredictable it is but annoying for the exact same reason. Anyway time to get in to it. Here’s the current Cyclone stats:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 14.0 degrees South, 154.6 degrees East , 560 kilometres east northeast of Willis Island and 980 kilometres northeast of Mackay .
Movement: slow moving.

Now its time to looks at the modelling.

Track:-
Tracks are still all over the list so I’ll stick to forecasting the next few days instead of trying to go beyond that. I’ve included the full outlook maps for you to see some you can see the longer term trends over time.
The low is expected to take a more SE to S turn tomorrow and begin its track south. That is something all modeling is in agreement with. However the thing that’s uncertain is how long it will remain tracking south. That is something we will need to watching the coming days to determine what will happen later on, as there is a possibility of a landfall. Once models begin aligning better with that aspect, I will begin including that in more detail but as I mentioned above, the uncertainty means for now I won’t make prediction past a few days so to not confuse people with how often the track changes.

Intensity:-
Modelling hasn’t increased the intensity forecasts, cat 3 is the highest rating shown in modelling. Currently he is holding at cat 1 but should reach Cat 2 tomorrow morning by 10am if outlooks come true.

That’s about all for this time. I’ll post another other update tomorrow.