Friday 7 Feb

A ridge of high pressure builds over the country.

There is minimal risk of severe weather.

Saturday 8 Feb

A ridge of high pressure affects most of New Zealand, while a front moves onto the south and west of the South Island.

A low of tropical origin moves southeastwards and may bring rain and strong southeast winds to the upper North Island. There is large uncertainty regarding the track of this low, but for now there is low confidence of significant heavy rain and severe southeast gales about the east coast of Northland. We shall continue to monitor this low closely.

Sunday 9 Feb

The low should continue to move slowly southeastwards, and may bring further rain or showers and strong southeast winds to eastern parts of the North Island. There is low confidence of significant heavy rain and severe southeast gales from eastern Northland to Great Barrier Island, coastal Coromandel Peninsula, and East Cape.

There is significant uncertainty regarding the track and timing of this low, and MetService will continue to monitor developments closely.

Monday 10 Feb

The low is expected to continue moving slowly southeastwards, with the chance of strong southeast winds, rain or showers for exposed eastern places of the North Island.

There is still significant uncertainly regarding the track and timing of this low, but at this stage there is low confidence of southeast winds and rainfall accumulations approaching warning criteria about East Cape.

Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) of a warning being issued.
Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.
High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) of a warning being issued.

Issued: 9:34am Wed, 5 Feb